Stop Nick Griffin | North West analysis in Red Pepper

North West analysis in Red Pepper

10 April 2009

Red Pepper april/may edition http://redpepper.org.uk/What-s-in-the-latest-issue

The April/May edition of Red Pepper has a full analysis of the BNP and the European elections, focusing in large part on the key North West battleground.

The full article is available in their print edition, but here are some relevant extracts, including quotes from Peter Cranie.

"For better or worse, the UK's first past the post electoral system largely prevents smaller parties gaining a serious role in government, at both local and parliamentary levels. For the EU elections, however, the UK uses a version of proportional representation that ensures representation of minority opinions. While the legislative influence of a single MEP is relatively minor, the position can - as amply demonstrated by the Green Party's Caroline Lucas - dramatically enhance the public profile of individual and party. The job also brings £250,000 of funding...

...Other anti-racist campaigners in the area attribute the BNP's rise to loss of faith in the main parties, and in electoral politics more generally. The BNP does best when turnout is low, and attracts protest votes more than committed supporters. If it's anywhere near as difficult for residents here to speak with their political representatives about these issues as it was for Red Pepper, it's easy to see the problem. Repeated attempts to talk with a range of Labour Party councillors in Manchester were ignored, forgotten, prevented by holidays abroad, or outright refused...

...Similar concerns proliferated at the Convention of the Left recall in January. In a packed public services seminar, the BNP was a hot topic. Many agreed the decline and commercialisation of social housing provision was a key factor behind the successes of the BNP, which has pinned the blame for housing problems onto immigrants. Speakers stressed the need both to refocus on community engagement and issues of everyday concern, and to provide a voting alternative to Labour. Could the Green Party represent this? In the spirit of co-operation fostered by the convention, Respect North West has backed a Green vote for the European elections. The combined Green and Respect vote in 2004 was 6.8%, higher than the BNP's, so this is no empty gesture.

Crucial percentage points

Peter Cranie, Green Party candidate for the North West, explained to Red Pepper that these percentage points are crucial. Contrary to Hope not Hate, he claims defeating the BNP requires similar levels of tactical analysis used against the BNP on a local level in first past the post. A draft Green Party election strategy given to Red Pepper, based on projections from previous European elections, claims the deciding factor will be the tussle between the smallest parties.

By winning between eight and nine percent of the vote, the Greens argue, the party finishing fourth gets the seat. To shave a crucial single percentage point from the BNP total, they say, Labour's vote would have to increase by four percent, compared to the Green Party's one.

Recent polls and past projections show that if the elections were held tomorrow, the BNP would finish fourth by a narrow margin, and win a seat. However, the failed attempt to form an electoral coalition with UKIP and results in the London mayoral elections suggest the BNP won't experience a surge in support like the five percent it achieved between 1999 to 2004.

Divisions remain over how to deal with the BNP, both at the ballot box and on the streets. Each party, of course, makes the case for its own vote being the best. Recent demonstrations in Liverpool, and at the "Red, White and Blue" festival in Derbyshire over the summer, show that disagreements over the levels of militancy appropriate in confronting the BNP remain entrenched. However, the spectre of the BNP in a position of high office should be enough to make a divided left focus on what it has in common to prevent it happening."

Buy the print edition online or from good newsagents