Green Party

The election in the North West

We want people to vote Green for positive reasons.

The work done by our two existing MEPs Jean Lambert and Caroline Lucas in the European Parliament is widely recognised. We’ve also got a positive agenda to create jobs, lower energy bills and continue to get real environmental action.

But we also recognise that the North West region is unique. This is where the Chairman of the BNP is standing for election.

The BNP gained 6.4% last time, and as little as 7.5% could be enough to elect a 4th placed party to the European Parliament under the complicated D’Hondt proportional representation system.

As the Green Party, we are building a coalition of anti-racist support to keep the BNP out of 4th place. Former Labour & Lib Dem councillors and other anti-racist political parties are backing the Greens. The combined support of these anti-racist votes in 2004 was 6.8%, more than that gained by the BNP.

A result like this will mean the BNP will win a seat:

But if the Green Party beat the BNP, even by just a handful of votes, the BNP will not win a seat.

See the voting system in action here

 

What do the other parties say?

All non-racist parties and anti-racism campaigners are united in saying that we need a high turnout, with as many voters as possible taking part in the European Election.

The BNP only do well when there is a lot of apathy and, if they were to gain 10% or more, no amount of tactical voting will keep them from winning a seat.

Higher than expected turnout, especially from Black and Asian communities around the North West, will make it really difficult for the BNP to get that level of support, but they are still expected to improve on their vote from last time.

If, for example, the BNP gain 8.5% of the vote in this European Election, the only way the other parties could stop them from winning a seat would be if:

• The Conservatives increase their vote by 10% to get more than 34%
• Labour’s vote falls less than 2% and they get more than 25.5%
• The Liberal Democrat vote increases by over 1% to get 17%

The Liberal Democrats are much lower in the polls now than in 2004 (when Charles Kennedy had gained support because of the Iraq war) and cannot hope to increase their vote in the face of the overwhelming evidence against them. In the London Assembly elections in 2008, they actually lost 2 London Assembly seats and their vote share fell to just 11%

That leaves anti-racist voters relying on the Conservatives to get an unprecedented 10% increase in their vote to 34% AND to hope that the Labour vote doesn’t drop by more than 2%. If something doesn’t quite fit correctly, it opens the door for the BNP to win a seat.

However, if the BNP are in 5th place, and the Greens get more votes than the BNP, you will be helping to keep the BNP out of the European Parliament.

Don’t just take our word for it

You can start putting your own figures into the D’Hondt calculator and working it out for yourself.

http://www.remy.org.uk/dhondt/dhondt.php

(The North West is an 8 seat region)

FAQs:  “But isn’t the vote for the main parties dropping – and surely now UKIP will do better than that?"

UKIP were in a massive hole before the expenses scandal broke and, ironically given their own MEPs’ record on corruption, it does seem like the problems in Westminster may help them recover.

Recent events and polls (such as this one by ComRes, carried out for UKIP) suggest that Labour support is falling even more than we have estimated above, with the LibDems fairly static and UKIP gaining, as well as the Greens and BNP.

So, here’s another possible situation, including a UKIP ‘surge’. As both the Greens and BNP were already targeting the North West, we’re sticking to the same maximum figures for those parties.

This new scenario would deprive Labour of one more seat, leaving UKIP the Greens and BNP to fight it out for the final two seats. If UKIP are ahead, the final round remains a stand off between Peter Cranie and Nick Griffin.

Again, don’t just take our word for any of this, try out different percentages for yourself on the D’Hondt calculator.